I am in the process of researching polling data from the past few elections to posit a hypothesis that the voter turnout in November will be approximately 10-15% higher than in years past, and if that hypothesis is correct, and further assuming that Delaware voting trends are representative of the trends around the country, why the current polling numbers are likely underestimated. I'll get to that in a day or two.
In the meantime, as a means of setting up my theory, I offer the following assumptions, which are based on census population data compiled over the past seven years. Obviously my numbers are going to be slightly lower since I am using an average calculation rather than attempting to figure out the actual exponential growth variable.
The average population growth per year from
2000 to
2007 is
1.013652%, which would make the total state population approximately 876,570 in July 2008. Broken down by county (
NCC,
Kent, and
Sussex, respectively), the average population growth is approximately 1.007%, 1.026%, and 1.023%, respectively, for each county north to south, making the respective populations approximately 532,090 in New Castle, 156,235 in Kent, and 188,481 in Sussex. Because of averages, my numbers don’t exactly add up (876,806 and 876,570), but I can project that the population is somewhere in the middle of that, so I will use the average for the population. Thus, the July 2008 population of Delaware was approximately 876,688 people.
Of course, not all of those people are eligible to vote. According to
Dave Leip’s Atlas of Presidential Elections, in 2004, the total voting population (that is, the population over 18) was 619,000, or approximately 74.6%. These numbers are obviously a little skewed because felons can’t vote, people move and do not deregister, etc., but for these purposes, the number is at least as accurate as the numbers used generally.
According to census data, in 2006, the population over 18 is approximately 649,740, or 76.1%. I’ll conservatively estimate that that number has remained constant but will use 75% as the eligible percentage of voters, notwithstanding the fact that it probably still overestimates the actual eligible voting population. Using this number and my July 2008 estimates, my voting population of Delaware in July 2008 was approximately 657,516 (in
July 2007, it was approximately 864,764).
According to the Delaware elections data, the number of total registered voters is approximately 88% of my estimated voting population. The below chart illustrates my compilation:
July 2008 Total NCC Kent Sussex
Population estimate 876,688 532,090 156,235 188,481
Voting pop. estimate 657,516 399,068 117,176 141,361
Registered voters 580,046 366,073 95,388 118,585
For comparison,
the estimated Delaware population in July 2004 was 827,617. Of these,
approximately 619,000 were eligible to vote.
In the 2004 primary, 517,742 were registered to vote, or approximately 83.6% of the voting-eligible population.
Tomorrow or the next day, I'm going to combine this data with the 2004 primary and general election data, along with the 2008 election data so far, and make a couple predictions as to voter turnout in November.
