2004 Delaware primary and general election data

This is the second of a three-part discussion in support of my hypothesis that the November election polling numbers are likely underestimated, which could make this election even more interesting (or decisive, as it is). As previously discussed, my estimate of the July 2008 population of Delaware is approximately 875,000. Given this estimate, I set forth the second base for my hypothesis, which involves the 2004 election data.

Approximately 6.35% voted in the primary. Similarly, in the 2004 election, assuming for the sake of argument a stable population, there were 554,194 registered voters, or approximately 60% of the total voting-eligible population. Of those registered voters, 375,190 cast a vote, or 67.7% of the registered-voter population. Combining data from these two sources, I can extrapolate an average population growth of 1.0012% per month per county in 2004, and those estimates are illustrated in Chart A below.

The following charts illustrates the breakdown of Delaware votes in the Democratic primary and in the actual general election.

Chart A. 2004 Delaware Democratic Primary: Feb. 3, 2004 (compiled from CNN reporting data and from estimated census data).

2004 Primary	Total	New Castle County	Kent	Sussex
Kerry	16,729	11,425	1,802	3,502
Lieberman	3,683	2,427	538	718
Edwards	3,657	2,207	474	976
Dean	3,439	2,554	312	573
Clark	3,145	2,358	357	430
Sharpton	1,885	1,622	165	98
Kucinich	343	265	30	48
Total	32,881	22,858	3,678	6,345
Population estimate	822,717	514,241	138,000	170,476
Voting population estimate	617,038	385,681	103,500	127,857
Registered voters	517,742
% population casting votes	4.0%	4.4%	2.7%	3.7%
% voting population casting vote	5.3%	5.9%	3.6%	5.0%

The 2004 General Election data (Chart B) is compiled from census data and from the 2004 data compilation from Dave Leip’s Atlas of Presidential Elections: National Data, Delaware overall data, New Castle, Kent, and Sussex. I used an average growth rate of 1.0012% per month and a 75% estimate for voting population for the three counties.

Chart B. 2004 Delaware General Election Data.

2004 Presidential Election	Total	New Castle County	Kent	Sussex
Kerry	200,152	146,179	23,875	30,098
Bush	171,660	93,079	31,578	47,003
Nader	2,153	1,336	363	454
Other	1,225	867	164	194
Total	375,190	241,461	55,980	77,749
Population estimate	828,756	518,031	138,813	171,912
Voting population estimate	619,000	388,523	104,110	128,934
Registered voters	554,194
% population casting vote	45.3%	46.6%	40.3%	45.2%
% voting population casting vote	60.6%	62.1%	53.8%	60.3%

The only thing I am going to draw from this data is that approximately 5-6% of the voting population voted in the 2004 February primary, and that number increased to a little more than 60% of the voting population in November 2004.

In the third entry (hopefully tomorrow, but more likely sometime over the weekend), I will use my extrapolated 2008 population data and the actual primary election data from this past February to posit a couple scenarios of the actual voting distribution 48 days from now. Does this advance any further discussion of anything important? Perhaps not. So why do it, given that Delaware will likely give its three electoral votes to the democratic party? I believe that if Delaware's polling increase is indicative of similar voting increases around the country, and those increases hold come November, the actual popular vote in these so-called "swing states" could be much different than any of the current polls are suggesting.

Tags: 2004 delaware election data, 2004 delaware primary election data, 2004 delaware general election data