Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Internet access restored
Let's just say that the internet access upstate is not as good as the internet access downstate. That, and there just hasn't been a lot of newsworthy stuff going on in Delaware lately, or at least nothing worth commenting about. I do have my election results analyzed and will try and post them tomorrow.
Thursday, December 18, 2008
America's most expensive license plates have nothing on Delaware
An interesting article in Forbes today talks about how old license plate tags are worth a lot of money. Part of the reason this is the case is because they are old collectibles and like rare coins, it's a matter of supply and demand. A license plate from Alaska in 1921 is estimated to be worth $60,000. Of course, what was the driving population in Alaska in 1921, twenty? Of course, in Delaware it's not the tag that is worth anything but the number itself. And the value of these tags, as anyone in the know knows, is far above $60,000. So which state really has the edge on collectibles as far as license plate memorabilia? The first one, or in Delaware's case, tag #6.
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Friday, December 12, 2008
Bailout bombs and markets are set to react
The Senate (as expected) rejected the auto bailout much as they did the initial banking bailout bill. Anybody know any good short etfs or stocks to capitalize on for the next couple of weeks?
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
UD wants to buy Chrysler plant
University of Delaware wants to buy the adjacent Chrysler plant and develop the property as either a new stadium or athletic complex. On one hand, I think this is a good idea and fits in with the long term plans of making UD/Newark a more integrated college town. On the other hand, it defeats any new industry from buying that same property and moving its base of operations there.
This debate, however, has dual interests for me. I'm for capitalism and free market industry, and would welcome new businesses coming to the state and providing people work (like Sallie Mae). I am also pro college and like the idea of a community-college-based city, sort of like Redmond, but more college centered. In the end, though, I think my loyalty can be evenly split as there are plenty of other properties that can be developed elsewhere in the state, which would still create jobs and develop industry, which would have the added benefit of letting the Newark campus continue to grow.
This debate, however, has dual interests for me. I'm for capitalism and free market industry, and would welcome new businesses coming to the state and providing people work (like Sallie Mae). I am also pro college and like the idea of a community-college-based city, sort of like Redmond, but more college centered. In the end, though, I think my loyalty can be evenly split as there are plenty of other properties that can be developed elsewhere in the state, which would still create jobs and develop industry, which would have the added benefit of letting the Newark campus continue to grow.
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Wednesday, December 3, 2008
California teacher comes up with a way to save his school money
Here's a clever way that one California teacher has come up with to save the school some money in printing costs: offer advertisements on tests. The same sort of idea already is in play when it comes to programs for games, plays, and yearbooks, so why not for non-extra-curricular activities?
While this does sort of breed commercialism in schools, I see it as minimal compared to the sorts of free advertising that companies already get in terms of brand name clothes and accessories, among other things. Especially for businesses that cater to youth and the under-21 crowd (or even the coveted 18-49 demographic), I'm surprised more schools aren't attempting to pool their collective resources to fix this moderate line item expense.
So is the idea worth investigating further? Of course. With the state facing record shortfalls, it's time to start investigating new ideas. Or pooling resources and contractors.
While this does sort of breed commercialism in schools, I see it as minimal compared to the sorts of free advertising that companies already get in terms of brand name clothes and accessories, among other things. Especially for businesses that cater to youth and the under-21 crowd (or even the coveted 18-49 demographic), I'm surprised more schools aren't attempting to pool their collective resources to fix this moderate line item expense.
So is the idea worth investigating further? Of course. With the state facing record shortfalls, it's time to start investigating new ideas. Or pooling resources and contractors.
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Sunday, November 30, 2008
Walmart stampeding death - seems a bit much
I heard that someone got trampled to death in a Black Friday mayhem last week up in New York. Are people that desperate for deals that it has come to this? What will likely result from this tragedy is that stores (on days like Black Friday) will have to simply organize themselves much like concerts do - and those who are in line first will get to go into the store in an orderly fashion.
These stores know that people are nutty - bad economy or not. Black Friday has turned into a spectacle of sales and deals which, in all seriousness, can easily be extended or duplicated on other days (and in many cases are). I hope Wal-Mart cuts this family a big check for their role in all of this.
At least if you buy online, the only thing you have to worry about is how fast your internet connection is and whether you have typed in the address correctly.
These stores know that people are nutty - bad economy or not. Black Friday has turned into a spectacle of sales and deals which, in all seriousness, can easily be extended or duplicated on other days (and in many cases are). I hope Wal-Mart cuts this family a big check for their role in all of this.
At least if you buy online, the only thing you have to worry about is how fast your internet connection is and whether you have typed in the address correctly.
Sunday, November 23, 2008
It's a downstate football championship
Here's a kudos to the Henlopen Conference and downstate football: For the first time in a long time (if not ever), all four teams in the Division I and II football finals are not from New Castle County. Laurel will play Milford for the D2 final and CR will play Sussex Central for the D1 crown. Championships for both divisions will be at Delaware State University this year, so nobody downstate will have to travel very far. I will predict Sussex Central over CR and Milford over Laurel.
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Friday, November 21, 2008
Pope predicts economic collapse in 1985? I can do the same thing right now
This article made me laugh. According to the article, the paper, written by Pope Benedict XVI when he was just a cardinal, made a rather bold and general prediction: "German-born Ratzinger in 1985 presented a paper entitled 'Market Economy and Ethics' at a Rome event dedicated to the Church and the economy. The future pope said a decline in ethics 'can actually cause the laws of the market to collapse.'"
Well, there were crashes in 1987 and 2001 that arguably fall into this same category, so I guess his Nostradamus-type prediction was just as applicable then. I'm not questioning the paper, nor have I read it, but I cringe when I see organizations like Bloomberg latch onto articles like this to the point they actually make a real headline.
Here's a bold prediction: Sometime in the future, the market will be well above 14,000 again, and probably approaching 20,000. Economic crisis will occur and the market will go down. And again, sometime after that, the market will rebound and things will be great. And after another time of great economic prosperity, the economy will slow down and the wallets will tighten as the market experiences tumultuous turns. There also will be a presidential election in 2036, and again four years later. Mark my words. All of this will come true. Just remember you heard it hear first, in 2008.
Well, there were crashes in 1987 and 2001 that arguably fall into this same category, so I guess his Nostradamus-type prediction was just as applicable then. I'm not questioning the paper, nor have I read it, but I cringe when I see organizations like Bloomberg latch onto articles like this to the point they actually make a real headline.
Here's a bold prediction: Sometime in the future, the market will be well above 14,000 again, and probably approaching 20,000. Economic crisis will occur and the market will go down. And again, sometime after that, the market will rebound and things will be great. And after another time of great economic prosperity, the economy will slow down and the wallets will tighten as the market experiences tumultuous turns. There also will be a presidential election in 2036, and again four years later. Mark my words. All of this will come true. Just remember you heard it hear first, in 2008.
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Saturday, November 15, 2008
Follow up to Capital School District post: A second comment
Out of fairness of giving additional exposure to yesterday's less articulate comment, I thought this comment to my post about the new grading policy at one of the school districts downstate was particularly insightful, in large part because it is written by someone who is actually experiencing said grading policy change:
"Note: This is a fairly long comment, but it clears up some misconceptions that have been floating around various places (not to accuse anything of having incomplete information though)
I am a student in the Capital School District. The grading scale (i.e., A=94-100, B=85-93....) has been that way for at least 5 years, with the exception of 50% as the lowest possible score. On the other hand, the 50-below-is-a-50 policy only applies to each quarter's score. In addition, a formative/summative grading system has been adopted for grades 5-12. Formative assignments, such as homework (which has a newly updated policy and is not supposed to be "busy work") and classwork, are intended to be for when students are still learning the concepts, and make up 20% of the grade. Summative assessments, such as tests and projects, are designed to assess a student's knowledge, and are worth 80% of the grade. These percentages are approximate, and may vary by 5% if my understanding of the policy is correct.
The purpose of making marking period grades under 50% a 50% is so that a student does not dig him/herself so deep into a hole that it would be impossible for them to pass that course, while "still reflecting that a student has failed". Under the grading system, 280 points (out of 400, 100 for each of the four quarters), are required to pass a full-year course. If a student gets, say, a 10% in the first quarter, that student would have to get at least a 90% every subsequent quarter in order to pass. With the 50% system in place, that student would need a 77% per quarter, which may be much more realistic for that student.
The formative and summative policy, at least in my school, is rather unpopular. Some (including teachers) despise the policy, while others take a more moderate view, preferring a change to the scale (A=90, B=80....) or a rebalancing to 70-30%,, and one of my teachers actually commented that she previously did a 90-10% system. Under this policy, class participation is not graded, and no assignment is allowed to be worth more than 20%. This means that teachers are required to give four summative and one formative assignment per quarter. For students, this results in their grades hinging heavily on their performance on tests. Previously, each teacher would set the weighting of each category of assignment. That tended to work well due to individual differences in course content, and it left some room for the teacher to adjust grades to ensure an accurate measure of student's performance.
This new grading system does cause stress for some students. In Capital, progress reports are released roughly halfway through each quarter, and reflect the student's current grade. Students scoring poorly on a test early on the quarter do not always have a chance to boost that grade before the progress report, and since the test makes up most of the grade when there are few other summative assignments, the student's grade will be much lower than what it should be. While some teachers do offer "make-up tests", essentially a re-test, not all will. An extreme example, but still showing the point, is one of a classmate whose average dropped about 15 percentage points in the beginning of the quarter due to a failed test.
The system places an emphasis on test grades, and so those that perform well on tests (showing that they do understand the concepts) but don't always do their homework will benefit, at the cost of those that do not always do well on tests, but always do their homework. It has been said that this promotes laziness, since it is not necessary to do any formative assignments at all if the average summative grade is at least 88% (resulting in a 70.4% average). Those that do work hard, but that are not good test-takers, are penalized.
A semi-recent Dover Post news article stated that the Board was open to suggestions for the policy. Several parents were present at their meeting and did voice their concerns about the new system. Topics mentioned included changing the percentage of each, class rankings differing large amounts dependent on the use of a 80-20 or a 70-30 split, and the first marking period grade of seniors hoping for early admission that are still adjusting to changing standards.
Some people do support the new system though. One of my teachers has said that summative assessments actually should be making up the majority of the grade, since the point of a course is to gain knowledge in a subject and be able to use it. Another important argument is that colleges do not have formative grades, and most students are college-bound. I have heard that another school is piloting a summative-only program (failing to do homework results in a detention). As to whether or not we are better prepared for college because of it, we will not know for several years, and by then the policy may have changed again.
A Dover Post article from several weeks ago stated that the board had been monitoring the situation, and that several concerned parents had brought up some issues. A look at grades revealed that the number of grades that were lower compared to last year was only about 3% higher than the number that were higher. If I remember correctly, the board was also open to changes to the policy.
As for my opinion on the changes itself, I am largely undecided. My grades this year have largely been unchanged, although the summative category has caused some large drops in my average. While I do agree that the policy is better for college preparation, it is important that it is not college, which may have been the reason for the formative category. I personally would prefer either a change to the grading scale, or a change in the percentages to a 70-30%. As to whether this system will be modified or removed, we will just have to wait and see."
"Note: This is a fairly long comment, but it clears up some misconceptions that have been floating around various places (not to accuse anything of having incomplete information though)
I am a student in the Capital School District. The grading scale (i.e., A=94-100, B=85-93....) has been that way for at least 5 years, with the exception of 50% as the lowest possible score. On the other hand, the 50-below-is-a-50 policy only applies to each quarter's score. In addition, a formative/summative grading system has been adopted for grades 5-12. Formative assignments, such as homework (which has a newly updated policy and is not supposed to be "busy work") and classwork, are intended to be for when students are still learning the concepts, and make up 20% of the grade. Summative assessments, such as tests and projects, are designed to assess a student's knowledge, and are worth 80% of the grade. These percentages are approximate, and may vary by 5% if my understanding of the policy is correct.
The purpose of making marking period grades under 50% a 50% is so that a student does not dig him/herself so deep into a hole that it would be impossible for them to pass that course, while "still reflecting that a student has failed". Under the grading system, 280 points (out of 400, 100 for each of the four quarters), are required to pass a full-year course. If a student gets, say, a 10% in the first quarter, that student would have to get at least a 90% every subsequent quarter in order to pass. With the 50% system in place, that student would need a 77% per quarter, which may be much more realistic for that student.
The formative and summative policy, at least in my school, is rather unpopular. Some (including teachers) despise the policy, while others take a more moderate view, preferring a change to the scale (A=90, B=80....) or a rebalancing to 70-30%,, and one of my teachers actually commented that she previously did a 90-10% system. Under this policy, class participation is not graded, and no assignment is allowed to be worth more than 20%. This means that teachers are required to give four summative and one formative assignment per quarter. For students, this results in their grades hinging heavily on their performance on tests. Previously, each teacher would set the weighting of each category of assignment. That tended to work well due to individual differences in course content, and it left some room for the teacher to adjust grades to ensure an accurate measure of student's performance.
This new grading system does cause stress for some students. In Capital, progress reports are released roughly halfway through each quarter, and reflect the student's current grade. Students scoring poorly on a test early on the quarter do not always have a chance to boost that grade before the progress report, and since the test makes up most of the grade when there are few other summative assignments, the student's grade will be much lower than what it should be. While some teachers do offer "make-up tests", essentially a re-test, not all will. An extreme example, but still showing the point, is one of a classmate whose average dropped about 15 percentage points in the beginning of the quarter due to a failed test.
The system places an emphasis on test grades, and so those that perform well on tests (showing that they do understand the concepts) but don't always do their homework will benefit, at the cost of those that do not always do well on tests, but always do their homework. It has been said that this promotes laziness, since it is not necessary to do any formative assignments at all if the average summative grade is at least 88% (resulting in a 70.4% average). Those that do work hard, but that are not good test-takers, are penalized.
A semi-recent Dover Post news article stated that the Board was open to suggestions for the policy. Several parents were present at their meeting and did voice their concerns about the new system. Topics mentioned included changing the percentage of each, class rankings differing large amounts dependent on the use of a 80-20 or a 70-30 split, and the first marking period grade of seniors hoping for early admission that are still adjusting to changing standards.
Some people do support the new system though. One of my teachers has said that summative assessments actually should be making up the majority of the grade, since the point of a course is to gain knowledge in a subject and be able to use it. Another important argument is that colleges do not have formative grades, and most students are college-bound. I have heard that another school is piloting a summative-only program (failing to do homework results in a detention). As to whether or not we are better prepared for college because of it, we will not know for several years, and by then the policy may have changed again.
A Dover Post article from several weeks ago stated that the board had been monitoring the situation, and that several concerned parents had brought up some issues. A look at grades revealed that the number of grades that were lower compared to last year was only about 3% higher than the number that were higher. If I remember correctly, the board was also open to changes to the policy.
As for my opinion on the changes itself, I am largely undecided. My grades this year have largely been unchanged, although the summative category has caused some large drops in my average. While I do agree that the policy is better for college preparation, it is important that it is not college, which may have been the reason for the formative category. I personally would prefer either a change to the grading scale, or a change in the percentages to a 70-30%. As to whether this system will be modified or removed, we will just have to wait and see."
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Wednesday, November 12, 2008
In response to a comment
Someone posted a comment on a post I had written a few months ago about a grading system change in the Capital School District. The comment, in its entirety (and unedited), speaks for itself. It reads:
"This is the most ridiculous argument for a flawed policy I have ever read. The process is designed to help pore students while penalizing the ones achieving beeter results. I have a student that regulary scores in the 80's and 90's she just recieved a b after achieving a 92 percent in english. This in most other scool districts in the country would be an A. He sister also earned a 75% and recieved a D again most otehr school districts in the US and many schools in Delaware this would have been a solid C. Yes, if she would have recieved a 10% on a test and was unfairly given a 50% she would have benefitted. Instead her lowest score was a 70% and is now unfairly saddled with a grade that does not reflect the national norm. How is this a good thing? How is this fair? How is this benifiting anyone other than the student who is failing."
I am going to start posting more frequently; for now life upstate has been interestingly busy and I will try and update over the weekend with some commentary on new news, as well as my post-election thoughts and prediction comparison.
"This is the most ridiculous argument for a flawed policy I have ever read. The process is designed to help pore students while penalizing the ones achieving beeter results. I have a student that regulary scores in the 80's and 90's she just recieved a b after achieving a 92 percent in english. This in most other scool districts in the country would be an A. He sister also earned a 75% and recieved a D again most otehr school districts in the US and many schools in Delaware this would have been a solid C. Yes, if she would have recieved a 10% on a test and was unfairly given a 50% she would have benefitted. Instead her lowest score was a 70% and is now unfairly saddled with a grade that does not reflect the national norm. How is this a good thing? How is this fair? How is this benifiting anyone other than the student who is failing."
I am going to start posting more frequently; for now life upstate has been interestingly busy and I will try and update over the weekend with some commentary on new news, as well as my post-election thoughts and prediction comparison.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Lines at voting only a few minutes wait
Watching the news, I am surprised that the other states can't get on board like Delaware and adopt some sort of electronic voting machine. You can watch updated results on CNN's website as well as the Department of Elections website. As of 8:38, nothing is up yet, although the networks have already concluded what I did a few weeks ago with much more precision. I'll figure out next week how close my actual prediction was.
The real question is whether any non-Delaware elected officials (presumably President Obama if it comes to that) will come to Return Day with Sen. Biden and the rest of the Delaware politicians to "bury the hatchet."
The real question is whether any non-Delaware elected officials (presumably President Obama if it comes to that) will come to Return Day with Sen. Biden and the rest of the Delaware politicians to "bury the hatchet."
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Sunday, November 2, 2008
After wednesday, one thing will be certain: 50% of America will be disappointed
This article is worth reading. My only addition would be that everybody needs to rally behind whoever gets elected so that our country can get back on track.
And all this talk of socialism from Sarah Palin is mildly amusing considering that her decision to reward the Alaskan taxpayers with a percentage of oil revenue "taken" from certain oil producers in that state has practically the same effect of "spreading the wealth around." Maybe after Tuesday these red herrings will simply go belly up.
And all this talk of socialism from Sarah Palin is mildly amusing considering that her decision to reward the Alaskan taxpayers with a percentage of oil revenue "taken" from certain oil producers in that state has practically the same effect of "spreading the wealth around." Maybe after Tuesday these red herrings will simply go belly up.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Phillies and the Comcast center statute end the curse
Good for the phillies as they win the 2008 world series. And, as pointed out at the end of the broadcast, William Penn was recently back on top of the city of Philadelphia. Of course, that was last year, but who is counting.
At least Tampa Bay got a taste of Delaware while they were in the mid-atlantic, while they stayed in the city's luxurious 5-star Hotel duPont. You can stay there too. Make sure you try the macaroons.
At least Tampa Bay got a taste of Delaware while they were in the mid-atlantic, while they stayed in the city's luxurious 5-star Hotel duPont. You can stay there too. Make sure you try the macaroons.
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Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Getting used to the new (to me) comcast channel lineup
One gripe I have about the upstate cable service is that the news channels are all over the place. Although both services are offered through Comcast, I'm surprised that the downstate channels are much more structured. Particularly (and to support my point), the news channels downstate are all grouped between channels 25 and 29, with the sports channels in the early thirties. Upstate, they are all over the place. It's just going to take a bit to remember where the right channel is.
Phillies rain delay
I was shocked to hear how many times Joe Buck kept saying "well, this is an official game", implying that they should just call it (which was not going to happen). Add to the shots of the doppler radar and it gives some credence to the local newscaster pondering whether this was the curse of billy penn in action. Give me a break - this is the world series, it's not going to be called for rain. So the question that is going to be on everyone's mind for the next few hours (or years even) is what effect this weather will have on tonight's game.
Here are a couple of my thoughts - phillies are at an advantage since Hammels now has a day to rest before retaking the mound and ryan howard can think about not striking out again. tampa has a minor advantage since they tied the game and got everyone to shut up about calling the game on account of weather. Advantage: Phillies.
Here are a couple of my thoughts - phillies are at an advantage since Hammels now has a day to rest before retaking the mound and ryan howard can think about not striking out again. tampa has a minor advantage since they tied the game and got everyone to shut up about calling the game on account of weather. Advantage: Phillies.
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Monday, October 27, 2008
The curse of William Penn...almost over?
Internet has been sporadic lately, but hopefully it will be fixed sometime this week. With the Phillies only a game away from finishing off Tampa Bay, it is almost time to say that William Penn has finally let bygones be bygones. I'm not going to go as far as to guarantee that the Phils will win the world series though.
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Sunday, October 19, 2008
On environmental advocacy: Thoughts for the new governor
Well, at least with oil at 50% of its highest levels, the price at the pump should be a little lower for a while. It will be interesting to see if all the calls for drilling offshore continue, and to what extent. (The answer is that they should - the problem has not gone away).
Many of my entries dealing with state-based proposals have some environmental overtones to them (solar panels on houses, economic plan, gas surcharge speeding tax, etc.). I will discuss another macro idea briefly: recycling.
Now, recycling itself is not a very worthwhile endeavor. While in Delaware, you have to pay into the recycling program, in Pennsylvania and other states, you do not. Cost deterrent aside, that is only one factor that may act more as a stick than a carrot. The more significant one is simple numbers: no matter how much we recycle in this State, or in any of the other 49 for that matter, there are countries whose recycling policies are decades from any we have developed, and their actions certainly offset any of ours. Rationally, the response to this argument would be to say that there is rationally no reason to recycle (a glorified "why bother" excuse). I say to act irrationally on this one: the point is for us to set an example for the rest of the world to follow and if it changes international perception even a fraction, that would be significant. (After all, it's the effort that accounts for more than the immediate result sometimes).
If the State of Delaware is serious about setting about recycling goals and encouraging the practice, the current efforts to simple merge all recycling bins to force the workers themselves to sort them falls a bit short.
Here is one solution. Cities in parts of the midwest have two trashcans covering their sidewalk corners - one for trash and one for bottles/newspaper. Granted, there is probably a lot of mixing of the two, but at least these cities are attempting to give people a choice to recycle or not.
Similarly, in at least two western/midwestern international airports, they also employ a similar recycling strategy. There were regular waste bins and recycling bins within a few feet of each other. Just like in the cities, and even more so because of what you are limited to buy food-wise and drink-wise in an airport, this sort of effort makes perfect sense. Of course, Philadelphia International had no such program, but the fact they did not was decidedly noticeable, which brings me to my point.
This sort of strategy can translate over here to Delaware just as easily and at a minimal cost to the state. In the cities (and particularly at the beach), the dual trashcan system, once implemented, would have the same effect as the current Delaware recycling plan that does not require individual sorting. Except that instead of having to travel to the outskirts of the cities or wherever to find these bins, simple recycling of a water bottle can be thrown out as you are walking to your next destination. This pilot could start at the beach where bottled water constitutes half the liquid economy down there.
Would it work? I think it depends on how one defines the end goal. But from a fiscal perspective, the price tag is quite nominal all things considered. At the very least, some people, given the choice, would put their recycled goods in the recycle bins. My guess is that the value of "some" would actually be "a lot." Something to think about.
Many of my entries dealing with state-based proposals have some environmental overtones to them (solar panels on houses, economic plan, gas surcharge speeding tax, etc.). I will discuss another macro idea briefly: recycling.
Now, recycling itself is not a very worthwhile endeavor. While in Delaware, you have to pay into the recycling program, in Pennsylvania and other states, you do not. Cost deterrent aside, that is only one factor that may act more as a stick than a carrot. The more significant one is simple numbers: no matter how much we recycle in this State, or in any of the other 49 for that matter, there are countries whose recycling policies are decades from any we have developed, and their actions certainly offset any of ours. Rationally, the response to this argument would be to say that there is rationally no reason to recycle (a glorified "why bother" excuse). I say to act irrationally on this one: the point is for us to set an example for the rest of the world to follow and if it changes international perception even a fraction, that would be significant. (After all, it's the effort that accounts for more than the immediate result sometimes).
If the State of Delaware is serious about setting about recycling goals and encouraging the practice, the current efforts to simple merge all recycling bins to force the workers themselves to sort them falls a bit short.
Here is one solution. Cities in parts of the midwest have two trashcans covering their sidewalk corners - one for trash and one for bottles/newspaper. Granted, there is probably a lot of mixing of the two, but at least these cities are attempting to give people a choice to recycle or not.
Similarly, in at least two western/midwestern international airports, they also employ a similar recycling strategy. There were regular waste bins and recycling bins within a few feet of each other. Just like in the cities, and even more so because of what you are limited to buy food-wise and drink-wise in an airport, this sort of effort makes perfect sense. Of course, Philadelphia International had no such program, but the fact they did not was decidedly noticeable, which brings me to my point.
This sort of strategy can translate over here to Delaware just as easily and at a minimal cost to the state. In the cities (and particularly at the beach), the dual trashcan system, once implemented, would have the same effect as the current Delaware recycling plan that does not require individual sorting. Except that instead of having to travel to the outskirts of the cities or wherever to find these bins, simple recycling of a water bottle can be thrown out as you are walking to your next destination. This pilot could start at the beach where bottled water constitutes half the liquid economy down there.
Would it work? I think it depends on how one defines the end goal. But from a fiscal perspective, the price tag is quite nominal all things considered. At the very least, some people, given the choice, would put their recycled goods in the recycle bins. My guess is that the value of "some" would actually be "a lot." Something to think about.
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Saturday, October 11, 2008
Moving back to Wilmington
My work has transferred me back to Wilmington, so I'm going to be out of internet access for about a week or so. Hopefully the internet doesn't go under next, otherwise we're all in trouble.
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Food for thought: A clean house (of representatives)
I watched the debate, but will hold off commenting on it, if at all, until I think about it some more. My sole thought, separate from this debate, stems from this financial bailout and all this talk for increased/decreased government spending. McCain's plan to buy mortgages, in light of last week's bailout bill, seems contradictory to his position to lower taxes or keep them the same. How are we supposed to pay for it? He says government freezes, but we've seen how that has stifled the Delaware economy, so multiply that by 50 and I can only imagine how worse the economy will get. At least with Obama, you know taxes are going to go up to some degree. Obama's plan to keep taxes the same for the middle class (i.e., those making less than $250,000/year) seems little more than a pipe dream, however. In either case, it seems that only Bob Barr has recognized that taxes are going to have to go up, probably significantly, although I'm at a loss for how that will help the economy either.
But focusing on last week's bailout bill for the moment, what I would like to see is a complete revamping of the House of Representatives. Since all are up for re-election next month, it is theoretically possible that all can be ousted for a new house of Congress. Granted, some are probably running unopposed and a certain percentage are probably always elected, but setting those numbers aside, I'm sure that of the 500+ seats, a solid majority could be won by non-incumbents. Could be interesting if it actually happened (notwithstanding the fact that it will not).
But focusing on last week's bailout bill for the moment, what I would like to see is a complete revamping of the House of Representatives. Since all are up for re-election next month, it is theoretically possible that all can be ousted for a new house of Congress. Granted, some are probably running unopposed and a certain percentage are probably always elected, but setting those numbers aside, I'm sure that of the 500+ seats, a solid majority could be won by non-incumbents. Could be interesting if it actually happened (notwithstanding the fact that it will not).
Sunday, October 5, 2008
So who won the debate really? Biden, of course.
I watched the debate for the first few minutes before heading out to dinner, mainly to see Joe Biden in action against Sarah Palin. Curiously, there are a lot of parallels between Biden and McCain and Palin and Obama, but after listening to Palin speak for a bit, and having heard Obama speak in the past, I find that whatever experience Obama supposedly lacks, Palin does not make up for it. I listened intently for her responses to whatever the questions she was asked, and compared to Biden's answers, I am much more comfortable having him give advice to the president than Palin. And if that's all the vice president is really supposed to do, other than break ties in the Senate, then I find it difficult to believe anyone who believes Palin won that debate.
Now, if Palin shows up in Delaware driving with a brown tag, that may be another story all together. Delaware, in addition to the black tag phenomena, now offers a brown centennial tag as well.
Now, if Palin shows up in Delaware driving with a brown tag, that may be another story all together. Delaware, in addition to the black tag phenomena, now offers a brown centennial tag as well.
Tags:
Monday, September 29, 2008
777 reasons to be scared for what will happen between now and Friday Oct 3
I remain surprised that the general public has no idea of the depths of this financial crisis and how it will affect everyday life. Nor am I going to spend any time discussing it beyond posing one question: Do you have to pay money for long term loans such as a car or mortgage or are you using a credit card and not paying it off in full every month? If the answer is yes to either of those questions, then you are going to have to start thinking about long term savings.
I write simply express my disgust with how bad our economy has become and wish out loud that the rest of the world economy doesn't get too far sucked down the tubes along with us. Have you ever tried to catch a falling knife? Hopefully President Bush simply creates an executive order to stop this insanity. If your money is still in the market in anything, get it out now!
Regardless of how my voice counts for nothing in all of this, as Delawareans, our lone representative, Mike Castle, certainly is one incumbent who put country above individual partisan politics and voted yes for the bailout bill. So, in one respect, Delaware did its part to try and bandage this national wound. Unfortunately, we needed the other 49 states to step up as well, and without the requisite support, the rest of the world is going to have to step back and think about this a little while longer.
Unfortunately also for every American who is not a Congressional member in Washington, the failure to put out a recovery plan today only means that tomorrow (and at least the rest of the week) will be another rough day for Wall Street. How will this affect "main street"? Just wait until the next time you need money.
I write simply express my disgust with how bad our economy has become and wish out loud that the rest of the world economy doesn't get too far sucked down the tubes along with us. Have you ever tried to catch a falling knife? Hopefully President Bush simply creates an executive order to stop this insanity. If your money is still in the market in anything, get it out now!
Regardless of how my voice counts for nothing in all of this, as Delawareans, our lone representative, Mike Castle, certainly is one incumbent who put country above individual partisan politics and voted yes for the bailout bill. So, in one respect, Delaware did its part to try and bandage this national wound. Unfortunately, we needed the other 49 states to step up as well, and without the requisite support, the rest of the world is going to have to step back and think about this a little while longer.
Unfortunately also for every American who is not a Congressional member in Washington, the failure to put out a recovery plan today only means that tomorrow (and at least the rest of the week) will be another rough day for Wall Street. How will this affect "main street"? Just wait until the next time you need money.
Monday, September 22, 2008
Behind the scenes of the Lobby House revealed in a tell-all lawsuit ripe for a made-for-tv movie
This headline in the News Journal jumped out at me, particular since I frequent the Lobby House often for lunch. The article speaks for itself, and as noted, the jury agreed with the former worker and awarded $1,500 in compensatory damages and $100,000 in punitive damages.
I disagree that its business will be "destroyed" by this lawsuit anymore than Wal-Mart is ruining our economy by failing to unionize. People need a place to go to eat and it's one of the more affordable places with ambiance in Dover. For its location and pricing, frankly I'm surprised the Lobby House isn't more successful. It's menu is decent, and while the service is a little slow, it is on par with the rest of the city. If their business is "destroyed," it certainly is not because of this lawsuit. Personally, I would blame NASA, Canada, and the invention of the biplane. And polar bears.
For me anyway, this piece of news is just that; I highly doubt it will make me more or less inclined to keep going there. Further, this took place at least two years ago, and one would think that even assuming there used to be problems such as those that have come to light, they have since been fixed. Trust me, there are much bigger problems to worry about than how one small business chooses to deal with its employees or if it chooses to continue to operate privately after it has closed. One need only look at the turmoil in the financial markets to recognize this latter point.
Nonetheless, this article is an interesting piece of news for those familiar with it:
Legislative Hangout Has a Lurid Side, Lawsuit Alleges
By Sean O'Sullivan and Ginger Gibson, Wilmington News Journal, Sept. 21, 2008
With its red-brick exterior and patio overlooking Silver Lake, the Lobby House appears to be as staid and conservative as a lobbyist in a Brooks Brothers suit haunting the hallways of nearby Legislative Hall.
Inside, servers in khaki pants and blue polo shirts serve burgers and the occasional beer to the sound of ESPN from several TVs. The Rotary Club meets there Mondays, families enjoy half-price sandwiches on Tuesdays and Team Trivia plays there Wednesdays.
Former state representative-turned-lobbyist Wayne A. Smith said the eatery, which is where Delaware Democrats nominated Lt. Gov. John Carney to run for governor, is "neat, clean and close to Legislative Hall."
But in federal court this month, a different picture emerged that made the Lobby House after hours sound more like the movie "Animal House."
Former bartender Shannon Laymon charged in a lawsuit and testimony in U.S. District Court that wild parties happened regularly – mostly after closing – with waitresses serving shots off their bodies, one offering "lap dances," managers serving liquor from their crotch areas and encouraging, or at least ignoring, waitresses going topless or flashing others.
All of this, Laymon's attorney Noel E. Primos said, created a hostile work environment and amounted to sexual harassment. He said Laymon was fired after she hired an attorney to pursue a workers' compensation claim and complained to a manager about an inappropriate comment by the owner.
After four days of testimony, a federal jury of eight agreed with Laymon.
It unanimously ruled that the Lobby House failed to take corrective action and retaliated against Laymon (who has married since she filed the lawsuit in 2007 and is now known as Laymon-Pecoraro).
She was awarded $1,500 in compensatory damages and $100,000 in punitive damages. At trial and afterward, operators of the Lobby House and their attorney, Ronald Poliquin, disputed Laymon's claims.
Owner Ken Caudill, who used to run KC's in Middletown, said last week he remains stunned. "What she said, it just didn't happen." He said the amount of the jury award is not a problem but believes the negative publicity will "destroy" the restaurant and 30 to 35 people will lose their jobs.
Attorney Poliquin said after the trial he would seek to have the jury award and verdict tossed out.
Primos said Friday that both sides had the opportunity to present their cases at trial. "There were numerous witnesses by both sides, many more by the defendant ... and the jury made its decision."
Legislative officials who frequent the restaurant were surprised by the details that emerged from the trial.
"You've got to be kidding me, it must be after 10 [p.m.]," said Smith, the former lawmaker, when told of the allegations.
Kate Bailey, a spokeswoman for Gov. Ruth Ann Minner, said she has eaten there a half-dozen times and never suspected such behavior.
"It’s not too exciting [at the Lobby House]," she said. "It's a place to eat."
"Holy cow," said state Sen. Karen Peterson, who described the Lobby House as "a handy place to meet people" and a regular destination for her end-of-session staff lunch.
Laymon, 24, began work at the Lobby House in August 2005, a college student in need of a flexible, good-paying job.
Primos told the jury that during Laymon's seven months there, female employees were advised by management to wear more revealing clothes to get better tips – one was advised to stuff her bra – and Laymon said a manager took her into the men's room to see her breasts.
Laymon and an ex-waitress testified there were regular wild parties after closing, including New Year's Eve 2005. That night, a 19-year-old waitress, who Laymon said had been drinking, stripped down to a G-string and bra and danced on the bar.
Managers did nothing to stop the display, according to testimony, and it was Laymon and another female employee who got the woman to get down and put her clothes back on.
"The Lobby House was a place where perverted behavior was commonplace," Primos told the jury in closing arguments. "Where female employees felt free to run around topless and flash their breasts."
Other witnesses disputed Laymon's claims.
One former waitress and a current waitress denied there were regular wild parties, and told the jury that the New Year's Eve incident was an anomaly.
Both also testified that they had flashed their breasts while working at the Lobby House. One bristled at the suggestion that she showed her breasts in exchange for beer, saying she did it because she felt like it.
Laymon also joined in the flashing, they said, showing off a piercing in a private area to two employees in the kitchen one night.
One who saw it claimed Laymon proudly, willingly showed off the piercing. Laymon testified that she felt pressured by a male co-worker to show it.
Primos said his client kept her mouth shut about the situation for months because she worried that if she complained, she would be fired.
Within two weeks of complaining to a manager about hearing an inappropriate remark by the owner, Primos said, Laymon was fired March 17, 2006.
Primos charged managers also were upset with Laymon for hiring an attorney several weeks earlier to pursue a workers' compensation claim for medical bills related to an on-the-job injury in October 2005.
Attorney Poliquin, in his closing statement, began with, "Wow." He told jurors if they believed Primos, everyone who worked at or went to the Lobby House "is a perverted sicko."
Poliquin and Caudill noted that Laymon had been diagnosed with depression before she went to work at the Lobby House – something Laymon acknowledged – and some Lobby House employees claimed Laymon acted erratically.
The case, in Poliquin's view, was about the right of a small restaurant to fire an employee who was hurting the business. He described Laymon as a "know-it-all" chronic complainer with an attitude problem who was bad-mouthing the establishment to customers as she served them.
"The business of the Lobby House is fun," Poliquin said, and Laymon "was miserable to be around in a place that sells fun."
As for New Year's Eve and some of the other incidents, Poliquin told the jury, "It's a bar and a nightclub. Not a corporation. Not a church."
I disagree that its business will be "destroyed" by this lawsuit anymore than Wal-Mart is ruining our economy by failing to unionize. People need a place to go to eat and it's one of the more affordable places with ambiance in Dover. For its location and pricing, frankly I'm surprised the Lobby House isn't more successful. It's menu is decent, and while the service is a little slow, it is on par with the rest of the city. If their business is "destroyed," it certainly is not because of this lawsuit. Personally, I would blame NASA, Canada, and the invention of the biplane. And polar bears.
For me anyway, this piece of news is just that; I highly doubt it will make me more or less inclined to keep going there. Further, this took place at least two years ago, and one would think that even assuming there used to be problems such as those that have come to light, they have since been fixed. Trust me, there are much bigger problems to worry about than how one small business chooses to deal with its employees or if it chooses to continue to operate privately after it has closed. One need only look at the turmoil in the financial markets to recognize this latter point.
Nonetheless, this article is an interesting piece of news for those familiar with it:
Legislative Hangout Has a Lurid Side, Lawsuit Alleges
By Sean O'Sullivan and Ginger Gibson, Wilmington News Journal, Sept. 21, 2008
With its red-brick exterior and patio overlooking Silver Lake, the Lobby House appears to be as staid and conservative as a lobbyist in a Brooks Brothers suit haunting the hallways of nearby Legislative Hall.
Inside, servers in khaki pants and blue polo shirts serve burgers and the occasional beer to the sound of ESPN from several TVs. The Rotary Club meets there Mondays, families enjoy half-price sandwiches on Tuesdays and Team Trivia plays there Wednesdays.
Former state representative-turned-lobbyist Wayne A. Smith said the eatery, which is where Delaware Democrats nominated Lt. Gov. John Carney to run for governor, is "neat, clean and close to Legislative Hall."
But in federal court this month, a different picture emerged that made the Lobby House after hours sound more like the movie "Animal House."
Former bartender Shannon Laymon charged in a lawsuit and testimony in U.S. District Court that wild parties happened regularly – mostly after closing – with waitresses serving shots off their bodies, one offering "lap dances," managers serving liquor from their crotch areas and encouraging, or at least ignoring, waitresses going topless or flashing others.
All of this, Laymon's attorney Noel E. Primos said, created a hostile work environment and amounted to sexual harassment. He said Laymon was fired after she hired an attorney to pursue a workers' compensation claim and complained to a manager about an inappropriate comment by the owner.
After four days of testimony, a federal jury of eight agreed with Laymon.
It unanimously ruled that the Lobby House failed to take corrective action and retaliated against Laymon (who has married since she filed the lawsuit in 2007 and is now known as Laymon-Pecoraro).
She was awarded $1,500 in compensatory damages and $100,000 in punitive damages. At trial and afterward, operators of the Lobby House and their attorney, Ronald Poliquin, disputed Laymon's claims.
Owner Ken Caudill, who used to run KC's in Middletown, said last week he remains stunned. "What she said, it just didn't happen." He said the amount of the jury award is not a problem but believes the negative publicity will "destroy" the restaurant and 30 to 35 people will lose their jobs.
Attorney Poliquin said after the trial he would seek to have the jury award and verdict tossed out.
Primos said Friday that both sides had the opportunity to present their cases at trial. "There were numerous witnesses by both sides, many more by the defendant ... and the jury made its decision."
Legislative officials who frequent the restaurant were surprised by the details that emerged from the trial.
"You've got to be kidding me, it must be after 10 [p.m.]," said Smith, the former lawmaker, when told of the allegations.
Kate Bailey, a spokeswoman for Gov. Ruth Ann Minner, said she has eaten there a half-dozen times and never suspected such behavior.
"It’s not too exciting [at the Lobby House]," she said. "It's a place to eat."
"Holy cow," said state Sen. Karen Peterson, who described the Lobby House as "a handy place to meet people" and a regular destination for her end-of-session staff lunch.
Laymon, 24, began work at the Lobby House in August 2005, a college student in need of a flexible, good-paying job.
Primos told the jury that during Laymon's seven months there, female employees were advised by management to wear more revealing clothes to get better tips – one was advised to stuff her bra – and Laymon said a manager took her into the men's room to see her breasts.
Laymon and an ex-waitress testified there were regular wild parties after closing, including New Year's Eve 2005. That night, a 19-year-old waitress, who Laymon said had been drinking, stripped down to a G-string and bra and danced on the bar.
Managers did nothing to stop the display, according to testimony, and it was Laymon and another female employee who got the woman to get down and put her clothes back on.
"The Lobby House was a place where perverted behavior was commonplace," Primos told the jury in closing arguments. "Where female employees felt free to run around topless and flash their breasts."
Other witnesses disputed Laymon's claims.
One former waitress and a current waitress denied there were regular wild parties, and told the jury that the New Year's Eve incident was an anomaly.
Both also testified that they had flashed their breasts while working at the Lobby House. One bristled at the suggestion that she showed her breasts in exchange for beer, saying she did it because she felt like it.
Laymon also joined in the flashing, they said, showing off a piercing in a private area to two employees in the kitchen one night.
One who saw it claimed Laymon proudly, willingly showed off the piercing. Laymon testified that she felt pressured by a male co-worker to show it.
Primos said his client kept her mouth shut about the situation for months because she worried that if she complained, she would be fired.
Within two weeks of complaining to a manager about hearing an inappropriate remark by the owner, Primos said, Laymon was fired March 17, 2006.
Primos charged managers also were upset with Laymon for hiring an attorney several weeks earlier to pursue a workers' compensation claim for medical bills related to an on-the-job injury in October 2005.
Attorney Poliquin, in his closing statement, began with, "Wow." He told jurors if they believed Primos, everyone who worked at or went to the Lobby House "is a perverted sicko."
Poliquin and Caudill noted that Laymon had been diagnosed with depression before she went to work at the Lobby House – something Laymon acknowledged – and some Lobby House employees claimed Laymon acted erratically.
The case, in Poliquin's view, was about the right of a small restaurant to fire an employee who was hurting the business. He described Laymon as a "know-it-all" chronic complainer with an attitude problem who was bad-mouthing the establishment to customers as she served them.
"The business of the Lobby House is fun," Poliquin said, and Laymon "was miserable to be around in a place that sells fun."
As for New Year's Eve and some of the other incidents, Poliquin told the jury, "It's a bar and a nightclub. Not a corporation. Not a church."
Tags:
Sunday, September 21, 2008
2008 Delaware primary and general election prediction
This is the last of my three part series on predictions on election turnout and voting breakdowns for the 2008 general election. I have already given a background on the current Delaware population and the 2004 primary and general election data.
There are two things I left off of the 2004 data. The first is the percentage of Delaware voters voting Democratic in the 2004 general election. As the world is well-aware, Delaware has turned a deep shade of blue, contrary to its previous reddish hue in the eighties and early nineties. The total percentage voting "D" in the 2004 general election was 53.3%; in New Castle, the percentage was 60.5%, in Kent, 42.6%, and in Sussex, 38.7%. Keep those percentages in mind.
Another chart necessary for comparison is the percentage of total vote each candidate received in the 2004 general election. That chart is here:
With the foundation set, here is the 2008 data (compiled from CNN's primary data and related sites).
2008 Delaware Republican primary voter turnout (Feb. 2008):
2008 Democrat Primary voter turnout (Feb. 2008):
Now, this doesn't really mean too much until you look at it broken down by party, and then compare the 2004 data to it. Granted, it's tough to compare exactly because there was no meaningful Republican primary (if there even was one at all) in 2004 because Bush was running for reelection. Nevertheless, nearly 40% of the turnout from the 2004 general election came out to vote in the 2008 primary. That's a huge increase. More interestingly, the turnout of those voting Democrat was statistically increased over the 2004 election. In other words, all three counties "turned blue", so to speak. Most interestingly, however, is the turnout in February 2008 as compared to February 2004. While the population increased only approximately 6% over that time period, the increase in voter turnout represented nearly a 300% increase.
All of this means very little, until you start looking at the population numbers. Using an estimated 1.0137% annual growth rate from July 2007 (which breaks down to a monthly growth rate of 0.061% in New Castle, 0.218% in Kent, and 0.189% in Sussex), and assuming a constant 75% voting population estimate, I derive the following chart (with registered voter data coming from the Department of Elections).
The initial question I had was whether the staggering increase in voter turnout in February would still hold true today. Fortunately for Delaware, the gubernatorial race between Markell and Carney proved worthwhile in a statistical sense, and provides support for my hypothesis that the answer is yes. While the numbers are slightly lower, it still demonstrates that voters continue to be engaged.
Thus, I am left to predict using this data (and my previous data calculations) to derive the turnout in November 2008. Because it is impossible to predict exactly how this election will play out, I will simply combine the data to show what the numbers could be using the 2004 percentages and the 2008 party distribution.
Thus, if Delaware had a similar voting turnout to 2004, Obama will likely carry New Castle County, and carry enough of Kent and Sussex to give him three electoral votes. This is not surprising, and every national poll has Delaware going blue. What I think is more interesting, however, is what happens if Obama (and the Democratic party) is successful in continuing to mobilize this "new" base (as evidenced by the incredible increase in voter turnout in February). Applying those numbers, as the chart indicates, Obama would carry each county, and carry the state with 66% of the vote.
The real question, in my mind, is not whether the February increase in voter turnout will carry over (since the September data results indicates it will), it is a question by how much. If the voter turnout increases from 60% to say, 70%, the numbers statistically favor a Democrat victory.
Now, this is just Delaware. Third party candidates have a statistically insignificant impact, and the population distribution of the state favors the Democrat party. What I find fascinating in this election is whether other states (and I suppose those that are "toss-ups") have similar percentage increases in voter turnout. Assuming for the sake of argument that they do, then that would seem to suggest that the percentages of voters voting Democrat in the various pockets of other states would also increase. My theory concerns that percentage increase in these pockets over those areas that experience a less dramatic increase in voter turnout (a theory that would obviously require analysis of every county in every state, which is simply beyond the scope of my three-part series). In the end, it becomes a simple numbers game. For those states where Democrats come out strong (such as in Virginia, Colorado, and other "toss up" states), the mobilization certainly favors the Democrats.
At this point, the only remaining question, which we will find out in a couple more months, is whether the voter turnout stays the same as in November 2004, or meets or exceeds that of February 2008. For John McCain, the answer to that question may very well depend on a mobilized base, which, in this year of it not being good to be the party in power, probably is a long-shot. Thus, while the election polls are running their regular polling data, and they should, I simply look at this data and conclude that the numbers are not taking into consideration the higher-than-predicted voter turnout. This x-factor certainly will be something all the reporters will be examining more heavily on the day and night of the election.
There are two things I left off of the 2004 data. The first is the percentage of Delaware voters voting Democratic in the 2004 general election. As the world is well-aware, Delaware has turned a deep shade of blue, contrary to its previous reddish hue in the eighties and early nineties. The total percentage voting "D" in the 2004 general election was 53.3%; in New Castle, the percentage was 60.5%, in Kent, 42.6%, and in Sussex, 38.7%. Keep those percentages in mind.
Another chart necessary for comparison is the percentage of total vote each candidate received in the 2004 general election. That chart is here:
| Percentage of total vote | | | | |
| 2004 | Total | New Castle | Kent | Sussex |
| Kerry | 53.3% | 60.5% | 42.6% | 38.7% |
| Bush | 45.8% | 38.5% | 56.4% | 60.5% |
| Nader | 0.57% | 0.55% | 0.65% | 0.58% |
| Other | 0.33% | 0.36% | 0.29% | 0.25% |
| % population casting vote | 45.3% | 46.6% | 40.3% | 45.2% |
| % voting population casting vote | 60.6% | 62.1% | 53.8% | 60.3% |
With the foundation set, here is the 2008 data (compiled from CNN's primary data and related sites).
2008 Delaware Republican primary voter turnout (Feb. 2008):
| Feb. 2008 Republican | Total | New Castle | Kent | Sussex |
| McCain | 22,628 | 13,227 | 3,598 | 5,803 |
| Romney | 16,344 | 8,758 | 2,806 | 4,780 |
| Huckabee | 7,706 | 3,140 | 1,568 | 2,998 |
| Paul | 2,131 | 1,434 | 289 | 408 |
| Total | 48,809 | 26,559 | 8,261 | 13,989 |
| Population estimate | 871,674 | 530,481 | 154,592 | 186,749 |
| Voting population estimate | 653,756 | 397,861 | 115,944 | 140,062 |
| % population casting vote | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 7.5% |
| % voting pop. casting vote | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 10.0% |
2008 Democrat Primary voter turnout (Feb. 2008):
| Feb. 2008 | Total | New Castle | Kent | Sussex |
| Obama | 51,148 | 37,818 | 6,736 | 6,594 |
| Clinton | 40,760 | 26,572 | 5,534 | 8,654 |
| Biden | 2,863 | 1,758 | 408 | 670 |
| Edwards | 1,241 | 575 | 273 | 393 |
| Other | 362 | 198 | 64 | 100 |
| Total | 96,374 | 66,948 | 13,015 | 16,411 |
| Population estimate | 871,674 | 530,481 | 154,592 | 186,749 |
| Voting population estimate | 653,756 | 397,861 | 115,944 | 140,062 |
| % population casting vote | 11.1% | 12.6% | 8.4% | 8.8% |
| % voting population casting vote | 14.7% | 16.8% | 11.2% | 11.7% |
Now, this doesn't really mean too much until you look at it broken down by party, and then compare the 2004 data to it. Granted, it's tough to compare exactly because there was no meaningful Republican primary (if there even was one at all) in 2004 because Bush was running for reelection. Nevertheless, nearly 40% of the turnout from the 2004 general election came out to vote in the 2008 primary. That's a huge increase. More interestingly, the turnout of those voting Democrat was statistically increased over the 2004 election. In other words, all three counties "turned blue", so to speak. Most interestingly, however, is the turnout in February 2008 as compared to February 2004. While the population increased only approximately 6% over that time period, the increase in voter turnout represented nearly a 300% increase.
| Feb 2008 | Total | New Castle | Kent | Sussex |
| Democrat | 96,374 | 66,948 | 13,015 | 16,411 |
| Republican | 48,809 | 26,559 | 8,261 | 13,989 |
| Total | 145,183 | 93,507 | 21,276 | 30,400 |
| Population estimate | 871,674 | 530,481 | 154,592 | 186,749 |
| Voting population estimate | 653,756 | 397,861 | 115,944 | 140,062 |
| % population casting vote | 16.7% | 17.6% | 13.8% | 16.3% |
| % voting population casting vote | 22.2% | 23.5% | 18.4% | 21.7% |
| Percentage of 2004 voting numbers | 38.7% | 38.7% | 38.0% | 39.1% |
| Percentage voting Democrat | 66.4% | 71.6% | 61.2% | 54.0% |
All of this means very little, until you start looking at the population numbers. Using an estimated 1.0137% annual growth rate from July 2007 (which breaks down to a monthly growth rate of 0.061% in New Castle, 0.218% in Kent, and 0.189% in Sussex), and assuming a constant 75% voting population estimate, I derive the following chart (with registered voter data coming from the Department of Elections).
| July 2008 Population Data | Total | New Castle | Kent | Sussex |
| Population Estimate | 876,688 | 532,090 | 156,235 | 188,481 |
| Voting population estimate | 657,516 | 399,068 | 117,176 | 141,361 |
| Registered voters | 580,046 | 366,073 | 95,388 | 118,585 |
The initial question I had was whether the staggering increase in voter turnout in February would still hold true today. Fortunately for Delaware, the gubernatorial race between Markell and Carney proved worthwhile in a statistical sense, and provides support for my hypothesis that the answer is yes. While the numbers are slightly lower, it still demonstrates that voters continue to be engaged.
| September 2008 Democrat Governor Primary | Total (including absentee votes) |
| Carney | 36,112 |
| Markell | 37,849 |
| Total | 73,961 |
| Population estimate | 878,565 |
| Voting population estimate | 658,924 |
| % population casting vote | 8.4% |
| % voting population casting vote | 11.2% |
Thus, I am left to predict using this data (and my previous data calculations) to derive the turnout in November 2008. Because it is impossible to predict exactly how this election will play out, I will simply combine the data to show what the numbers could be using the 2004 percentages and the 2008 party distribution.
| November 2008 | Total | New Castle | Kent | Sussex |
| Est. Population | 880,566 | 533,392 | 157,601 | 189,914 |
| Est. Voting population | 660,425 | 400,044 | 118,201 | 142,436 |
| Using 2004 voting percentages | | | | |
| Total | 400,298 | 248,621 | 63,557 | 85,891 |
| Obama | 213,547 | 150,514 | 27,106 | 33,250 |
| McCain | 183,148 | 95,839 | 35,852 | 51,925 |
| Nader | 2,297 | 1,376 | 412 | 502 |
| Barr/Other | 1,307 | 893 | 186 | 214 |
| Using 2008 percentages voting Democrat | | | | |
| Obama | 265,722 | 178,005 | 38,879 | 46,367 |
| McCain | 130,573 | 68,130 | 24,042 | 38,665 |
| Other (1%) | 4,003 | 2,486 | 636 | 859 |
Thus, if Delaware had a similar voting turnout to 2004, Obama will likely carry New Castle County, and carry enough of Kent and Sussex to give him three electoral votes. This is not surprising, and every national poll has Delaware going blue. What I think is more interesting, however, is what happens if Obama (and the Democratic party) is successful in continuing to mobilize this "new" base (as evidenced by the incredible increase in voter turnout in February). Applying those numbers, as the chart indicates, Obama would carry each county, and carry the state with 66% of the vote.
The real question, in my mind, is not whether the February increase in voter turnout will carry over (since the September data results indicates it will), it is a question by how much. If the voter turnout increases from 60% to say, 70%, the numbers statistically favor a Democrat victory.
Now, this is just Delaware. Third party candidates have a statistically insignificant impact, and the population distribution of the state favors the Democrat party. What I find fascinating in this election is whether other states (and I suppose those that are "toss-ups") have similar percentage increases in voter turnout. Assuming for the sake of argument that they do, then that would seem to suggest that the percentages of voters voting Democrat in the various pockets of other states would also increase. My theory concerns that percentage increase in these pockets over those areas that experience a less dramatic increase in voter turnout (a theory that would obviously require analysis of every county in every state, which is simply beyond the scope of my three-part series). In the end, it becomes a simple numbers game. For those states where Democrats come out strong (such as in Virginia, Colorado, and other "toss up" states), the mobilization certainly favors the Democrats.
At this point, the only remaining question, which we will find out in a couple more months, is whether the voter turnout stays the same as in November 2004, or meets or exceeds that of February 2008. For John McCain, the answer to that question may very well depend on a mobilized base, which, in this year of it not being good to be the party in power, probably is a long-shot. Thus, while the election polls are running their regular polling data, and they should, I simply look at this data and conclude that the numbers are not taking into consideration the higher-than-predicted voter turnout. This x-factor certainly will be something all the reporters will be examining more heavily on the day and night of the election.
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Wednesday, September 17, 2008
2004 Delaware primary and general election data
This is the second of a three-part discussion in support of my hypothesis that the November election polling numbers are likely underestimated, which could make this election even more interesting (or decisive, as it is). As previously discussed, my estimate of the July 2008 population of Delaware is approximately 875,000. Given this estimate, I set forth the second base for my hypothesis, which involves the 2004 election data.
Approximately 6.35% voted in the primary. Similarly, in the 2004 election, assuming for the sake of argument a stable population, there were 554,194 registered voters, or approximately 60% of the total voting-eligible population. Of those registered voters, 375,190 cast a vote, or 67.7% of the registered-voter population. Combining data from these two sources, I can extrapolate an average population growth of 1.0012% per month per county in 2004, and those estimates are illustrated in Chart A below.
The following charts illustrates the breakdown of Delaware votes in the Democratic primary and in the actual general election.
Chart A. 2004 Delaware Democratic Primary: Feb. 3, 2004 (compiled from CNN reporting data and from estimated census data).
The only thing I am going to draw from this data is that approximately 5-6% of the voting population voted in the 2004 February primary, and that number increased to a little more than 60% of the voting population in November 2004.
In the third entry (hopefully tomorrow, but more likely sometime over the weekend), I will use my extrapolated 2008 population data and the actual primary election data from this past February to posit a couple scenarios of the actual voting distribution 48 days from now. Does this advance any further discussion of anything important? Perhaps not. So why do it, given that Delaware will likely give its three electoral votes to the democratic party? I believe that if Delaware's polling increase is indicative of similar voting increases around the country, and those increases hold come November, the actual popular vote in these so-called "swing states" could be much different than any of the current polls are suggesting.
Approximately 6.35% voted in the primary. Similarly, in the 2004 election, assuming for the sake of argument a stable population, there were 554,194 registered voters, or approximately 60% of the total voting-eligible population. Of those registered voters, 375,190 cast a vote, or 67.7% of the registered-voter population. Combining data from these two sources, I can extrapolate an average population growth of 1.0012% per month per county in 2004, and those estimates are illustrated in Chart A below.
The following charts illustrates the breakdown of Delaware votes in the Democratic primary and in the actual general election.
Chart A. 2004 Delaware Democratic Primary: Feb. 3, 2004 (compiled from CNN reporting data and from estimated census data).
| 2004 Primary | Total | New Castle County | Kent | Sussex |
| Kerry | 16,729 | 11,425 | 1,802 | 3,502 |
| Lieberman | 3,683 | 2,427 | 538 | 718 |
| Edwards | 3,657 | 2,207 | 474 | 976 |
| Dean | 3,439 | 2,554 | 312 | 573 |
| Clark | 3,145 | 2,358 | 357 | 430 |
| Sharpton | 1,885 | 1,622 | 165 | 98 |
| Kucinich | 343 | 265 | 30 | 48 |
| Total | 32,881 | 22,858 | 3,678 | 6,345 |
| Population estimate | 822,717 | 514,241 | 138,000 | 170,476 |
| Voting population estimate | 617,038 | 385,681 | 103,500 | 127,857 |
| Registered voters | 517,742 | |||
| % population casting votes | 4.0% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 3.7% |
| % voting population casting vote | 5.3% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 5.0% |
The 2004 General Election data (Chart B) is compiled from census data and from the 2004 data compilation from Dave Leip’s Atlas of Presidential Elections: National Data, Delaware overall data, New Castle, Kent, and Sussex. I used an average growth rate of 1.0012% per month and a 75% estimate for voting population for the three counties.
Chart B. 2004 Delaware General Election Data.
| 2004 Presidential Election | Total | New Castle County | Kent | Sussex |
| Kerry | 200,152 | 146,179 | 23,875 | 30,098 |
| Bush | 171,660 | 93,079 | 31,578 | 47,003 |
| Nader | 2,153 | 1,336 | 363 | 454 |
| Other | 1,225 | 867 | 164 | 194 |
| Total | 375,190 | 241,461 | 55,980 | 77,749 |
| Population estimate | 828,756 | 518,031 | 138,813 | 171,912 |
| Voting population estimate | 619,000 | 388,523 | 104,110 | 128,934 |
| Registered voters | 554,194 | |||
| % population casting vote | 45.3% | 46.6% | 40.3% | 45.2% |
| % voting population casting vote | 60.6% | 62.1% | 53.8% | 60.3% |
The only thing I am going to draw from this data is that approximately 5-6% of the voting population voted in the 2004 February primary, and that number increased to a little more than 60% of the voting population in November 2004.
In the third entry (hopefully tomorrow, but more likely sometime over the weekend), I will use my extrapolated 2008 population data and the actual primary election data from this past February to posit a couple scenarios of the actual voting distribution 48 days from now. Does this advance any further discussion of anything important? Perhaps not. So why do it, given that Delaware will likely give its three electoral votes to the democratic party? I believe that if Delaware's polling increase is indicative of similar voting increases around the country, and those increases hold come November, the actual popular vote in these so-called "swing states" could be much different than any of the current polls are suggesting.
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Wednesday, September 10, 2008
The Estimated Population of Delaware
I am in the process of researching polling data from the past few elections to posit a hypothesis that the voter turnout in November will be approximately 10-15% higher than in years past, and if that hypothesis is correct, and further assuming that Delaware voting trends are representative of the trends around the country, why the current polling numbers are likely underestimated. I'll get to that in a day or two.
In the meantime, as a means of setting up my theory, I offer the following assumptions, which are based on census population data compiled over the past seven years. Obviously my numbers are going to be slightly lower since I am using an average calculation rather than attempting to figure out the actual exponential growth variable.
The average population growth per year from 2000 to 2007 is 1.013652%, which would make the total state population approximately 876,570 in July 2008. Broken down by county (NCC, Kent, and Sussex, respectively), the average population growth is approximately 1.007%, 1.026%, and 1.023%, respectively, for each county north to south, making the respective populations approximately 532,090 in New Castle, 156,235 in Kent, and 188,481 in Sussex. Because of averages, my numbers don’t exactly add up (876,806 and 876,570), but I can project that the population is somewhere in the middle of that, so I will use the average for the population. Thus, the July 2008 population of Delaware was approximately 876,688 people.
Of course, not all of those people are eligible to vote. According to Dave Leip’s Atlas of Presidential Elections, in 2004, the total voting population (that is, the population over 18) was 619,000, or approximately 74.6%. These numbers are obviously a little skewed because felons can’t vote, people move and do not deregister, etc., but for these purposes, the number is at least as accurate as the numbers used generally.
According to census data, in 2006, the population over 18 is approximately 649,740, or 76.1%. I’ll conservatively estimate that that number has remained constant but will use 75% as the eligible percentage of voters, notwithstanding the fact that it probably still overestimates the actual eligible voting population. Using this number and my July 2008 estimates, my voting population of Delaware in July 2008 was approximately 657,516 (in July 2007, it was approximately 864,764). According to the Delaware elections data, the number of total registered voters is approximately 88% of my estimated voting population. The below chart illustrates my compilation:
July 2008 Total NCC Kent Sussex
Population estimate 876,688 532,090 156,235 188,481
Voting pop. estimate 657,516 399,068 117,176 141,361
Registered voters 580,046 366,073 95,388 118,585
For comparison, the estimated Delaware population in July 2004 was 827,617. Of these, approximately 619,000 were eligible to vote. In the 2004 primary, 517,742 were registered to vote, or approximately 83.6% of the voting-eligible population.
Tomorrow or the next day, I'm going to combine this data with the 2004 primary and general election data, along with the 2008 election data so far, and make a couple predictions as to voter turnout in November.
In the meantime, as a means of setting up my theory, I offer the following assumptions, which are based on census population data compiled over the past seven years. Obviously my numbers are going to be slightly lower since I am using an average calculation rather than attempting to figure out the actual exponential growth variable.
The average population growth per year from 2000 to 2007 is 1.013652%, which would make the total state population approximately 876,570 in July 2008. Broken down by county (NCC, Kent, and Sussex, respectively), the average population growth is approximately 1.007%, 1.026%, and 1.023%, respectively, for each county north to south, making the respective populations approximately 532,090 in New Castle, 156,235 in Kent, and 188,481 in Sussex. Because of averages, my numbers don’t exactly add up (876,806 and 876,570), but I can project that the population is somewhere in the middle of that, so I will use the average for the population. Thus, the July 2008 population of Delaware was approximately 876,688 people.
Of course, not all of those people are eligible to vote. According to Dave Leip’s Atlas of Presidential Elections, in 2004, the total voting population (that is, the population over 18) was 619,000, or approximately 74.6%. These numbers are obviously a little skewed because felons can’t vote, people move and do not deregister, etc., but for these purposes, the number is at least as accurate as the numbers used generally.
According to census data, in 2006, the population over 18 is approximately 649,740, or 76.1%. I’ll conservatively estimate that that number has remained constant but will use 75% as the eligible percentage of voters, notwithstanding the fact that it probably still overestimates the actual eligible voting population. Using this number and my July 2008 estimates, my voting population of Delaware in July 2008 was approximately 657,516 (in July 2007, it was approximately 864,764). According to the Delaware elections data, the number of total registered voters is approximately 88% of my estimated voting population. The below chart illustrates my compilation:
July 2008 Total NCC Kent Sussex
Population estimate 876,688 532,090 156,235 188,481
Voting pop. estimate 657,516 399,068 117,176 141,361
Registered voters 580,046 366,073 95,388 118,585
For comparison, the estimated Delaware population in July 2004 was 827,617. Of these, approximately 619,000 were eligible to vote. In the 2004 primary, 517,742 were registered to vote, or approximately 83.6% of the voting-eligible population.
Tomorrow or the next day, I'm going to combine this data with the 2004 primary and general election data, along with the 2008 election data so far, and make a couple predictions as to voter turnout in November.
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Tuesday, September 9, 2008
Primary day - And the winner is...?
Once again, the state has held another primary, and while the gubernatorial race for the Republicans is pretty one-sided, for Democrats, it will come down to either Markell or Carney. I still say that given the low primary turnout for what has turned into a three-party race should lead the runner-up (be it Markell or Carney) to continue running for another two months and let the entire state decide who the governor should be.
Given the non-likelihood of that scenario, I simply will speculate on who will be appointed to Sen. Biden's seat if the Democrats take the White House in January. While I initially thought that the runner-up in today's primary would get the nod, or Beau Biden, now I'm thinking it may change depending on who the governor is. Ideally, the Republican Party wants Lee to win in order to change Biden's potentially open seat to a republican one. If Markell emerges as the new governor, I would guess that it would be either Gov. Minner or Carney; if Carney emerges, I think it's more likely to be his predecessor than anyone else, leaving a much more interesting race in 2010.
So, what is my guess for the Democratic Governor winner for today? If I had to break it down by county, I would guess that it's going to be close, but Markell will edge out Carney in all three counties. We'll see what happens.
Given the non-likelihood of that scenario, I simply will speculate on who will be appointed to Sen. Biden's seat if the Democrats take the White House in January. While I initially thought that the runner-up in today's primary would get the nod, or Beau Biden, now I'm thinking it may change depending on who the governor is. Ideally, the Republican Party wants Lee to win in order to change Biden's potentially open seat to a republican one. If Markell emerges as the new governor, I would guess that it would be either Gov. Minner or Carney; if Carney emerges, I think it's more likely to be his predecessor than anyone else, leaving a much more interesting race in 2010.
So, what is my guess for the Democratic Governor winner for today? If I had to break it down by county, I would guess that it's going to be close, but Markell will edge out Carney in all three counties. We'll see what happens.
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Thursday, September 4, 2008
Is Sarah Palin running for president or is John McCain?
The media and press sure seems to be focused on the vice president and comparing her to Sen. Obama...it's almost to the point that he is running against her and not McCain? It's amazes me how quickly the public can lose focus of the real issues, or how clever the Republican party is at throwing up a lot of smoke and mirrors. Palin's speech was excellent, however.
Nevertheless, I am confused by the conservative message that she brings to the ticket - on one hand, she wants to promote teaching creationism in school and does not wish to teach sex education in school (an abstinence only education, if you will). What follows from this approach is that sex education should be taught through the family and not through the schools. If that is the case, however, doesn't her teenage daughter's pregnancy seem to show that either her approach is incorrect or that her ability to manage her own family is a little off-centered? I'll be anxious to see how she fares once she exposes herself to Meet the Press, Bill O'Reilly and the like.
The Atlantic had a very well-written article about this topic which expresses the concern much better than I could. US News had an interesting op-ed piece as well.
Nevertheless, I am confused by the conservative message that she brings to the ticket - on one hand, she wants to promote teaching creationism in school and does not wish to teach sex education in school (an abstinence only education, if you will). What follows from this approach is that sex education should be taught through the family and not through the schools. If that is the case, however, doesn't her teenage daughter's pregnancy seem to show that either her approach is incorrect or that her ability to manage her own family is a little off-centered? I'll be anxious to see how she fares once she exposes herself to Meet the Press, Bill O'Reilly and the like.
The Atlantic had a very well-written article about this topic which expresses the concern much better than I could. US News had an interesting op-ed piece as well.
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Friday, August 29, 2008
Palin? Has the world forgotten about Geraldine Ferraro?
I'm going to have to find out more about this Alaskan governor Sarah Palin. On the surface, I am not very impressed from what I have read so far. I am mildly surprised by how soon the world has forgotten that another woman, over 20 years ago, has already been the VP nominee: Geraldine Ferraro. Whether or not this was a smart move or a shot in the foot instead of across the bow...well, we'll find out soon enough.
But all I know about Alaska is they just had some corrupt senator get indicted for accepting various funds through allegedly improper channels. And since Alaska has a population smaller than that of Delaware, I just wonder how much leadership she has over anybody else. But if someone can point me to some intelligent source that provides an unbiased review of her credentials, that would be great.
I am also mildly disturbed with McCain touting her as someone ready to be president. Isn't he running to be president?
But all I know about Alaska is they just had some corrupt senator get indicted for accepting various funds through allegedly improper channels. And since Alaska has a population smaller than that of Delaware, I just wonder how much leadership she has over anybody else. But if someone can point me to some intelligent source that provides an unbiased review of her credentials, that would be great.
I am also mildly disturbed with McCain touting her as someone ready to be president. Isn't he running to be president?
Monday, August 25, 2008
Biden gets VP nod
Looks like my predication came true. Now the question becomes what happens if the dems take the white house. Assuming Markell wins the governor's race, he'll get to appoint Sen. Biden's replacement until the special election in two years. If that scenario happens, I predict that Sen. Biden's son, Beau, will get the nod. If Judge Lee wins the election, I think it becomes much more interesting of a guessing game as to who would go in. Any guesses?
Monday, August 18, 2008
If Biden is VP, is this a good thing for DE? Absolutely.
For the most part, I have avoided commentary on the national political race (or the state ones for that matter) because whatever my comments are, at least on this particular forum, are going to be lost as white noise. Hopefully my comments regarding Sen. Biden will hopefully come across as more thoughtful than some other random rants I have seen on the internet on this topic. My own political affiliations and philosophy are disclosed below.
With rumors swirling about Sen. Biden being a potential vice presidential candidate, I think it works out much better than the media is letting on. So my point is clear, I think he's a good pick. Will he get it? That I don't know, but I think the answer is yes. At the very least, I'm sure he's in consideration for a cabinet position, which also works out well.
The reason why I think Biden will be good is not just for the wealth of his foreign policy experience, but that he's from Delaware. He will be able to make sure that whatever Obama's economic policy is, it will not fiscally bankrupt the corporate universe. That will have to make Wall Street happy. Whether the average Delawarean realizes the impact Delaware has on the rest of the country is of little consequence; my point is that Biden does, and if he does, and is VP, that means Obama does too. In other words, Delaware, and more importantly, the American economy, should be pretty safe.
Of course, the top 3% of the individual tax world will probably be screwed regardless of who the next president is because our country is on the verge of a fiscal calamity, but I would suspect the ultimate tax plan of either candidate can be massaged to protect those relevant business entities (i.e., those small business owners who are shaking in their boots over worry over how they will be taxed on their less-than-stellar earnings for FY08). Biden only helps to ensure that that in fact happens, or so that's the assumption I'm going to stew over for now. We'll find out in a couple of days of what exactly his role is going to be in this process, and whether Sen. McCain is able to effectively respond with his vice presidential candidate.
Then comes the matter of who will take over for him in Senate. That, of course, will be a much less national issue, but most definitely an interesting one. Go Delaware!
Disclosure: Politically, I am fairly conservative on most issues, particularly financial ones, and moderate on some others. In one sentence, I disfavor big government, favor state's rights, and favor minimal government interference with state's rights to the extent that the government should dictate national policy and provide guidance to the states. To the best of my understanding, that makes me a modern Reagan Republican, although most younger Democrats probably have similar beliefs (which suggests that we probably are closer to a one-party system than the partisan one that plagues the current media coverage). I am not affiliated with, nor endorse with these comments, any candidate for state, local, or national office.
That being said, I may have discussed a few months ago whether Sen. Biden should be considered for the presidential nomination, and agreed with the majority of pundits that the answer was that he probably would not be considered, even though he was significantly more qualified than either of the then-front runners. Personally, right now I am more in favor of Sen. Obama over Sen. McCain, at the very least because he is much closer to my age. I speculate that age will be an underlying issue more than it is currently playing out, but I'll save that commentary for a more intelligent poster. If anything, watching their debate on the tv the other day suggests that one candidate is quick to respond without thinking and the other thinks about what he's going to say, but sometimes it's difficult to get the point. Is one method better or worse? Again, I'll defer that pregnant pause for someone else or another day.
With rumors swirling about Sen. Biden being a potential vice presidential candidate, I think it works out much better than the media is letting on. So my point is clear, I think he's a good pick. Will he get it? That I don't know, but I think the answer is yes. At the very least, I'm sure he's in consideration for a cabinet position, which also works out well.
The reason why I think Biden will be good is not just for the wealth of his foreign policy experience, but that he's from Delaware. He will be able to make sure that whatever Obama's economic policy is, it will not fiscally bankrupt the corporate universe. That will have to make Wall Street happy. Whether the average Delawarean realizes the impact Delaware has on the rest of the country is of little consequence; my point is that Biden does, and if he does, and is VP, that means Obama does too. In other words, Delaware, and more importantly, the American economy, should be pretty safe.
Of course, the top 3% of the individual tax world will probably be screwed regardless of who the next president is because our country is on the verge of a fiscal calamity, but I would suspect the ultimate tax plan of either candidate can be massaged to protect those relevant business entities (i.e., those small business owners who are shaking in their boots over worry over how they will be taxed on their less-than-stellar earnings for FY08). Biden only helps to ensure that that in fact happens, or so that's the assumption I'm going to stew over for now. We'll find out in a couple of days of what exactly his role is going to be in this process, and whether Sen. McCain is able to effectively respond with his vice presidential candidate.
Then comes the matter of who will take over for him in Senate. That, of course, will be a much less national issue, but most definitely an interesting one. Go Delaware!
Disclosure: Politically, I am fairly conservative on most issues, particularly financial ones, and moderate on some others. In one sentence, I disfavor big government, favor state's rights, and favor minimal government interference with state's rights to the extent that the government should dictate national policy and provide guidance to the states. To the best of my understanding, that makes me a modern Reagan Republican, although most younger Democrats probably have similar beliefs (which suggests that we probably are closer to a one-party system than the partisan one that plagues the current media coverage). I am not affiliated with, nor endorse with these comments, any candidate for state, local, or national office.
That being said, I may have discussed a few months ago whether Sen. Biden should be considered for the presidential nomination, and agreed with the majority of pundits that the answer was that he probably would not be considered, even though he was significantly more qualified than either of the then-front runners. Personally, right now I am more in favor of Sen. Obama over Sen. McCain, at the very least because he is much closer to my age. I speculate that age will be an underlying issue more than it is currently playing out, but I'll save that commentary for a more intelligent poster. If anything, watching their debate on the tv the other day suggests that one candidate is quick to respond without thinking and the other thinks about what he's going to say, but sometimes it's difficult to get the point. Is one method better or worse? Again, I'll defer that pregnant pause for someone else or another day.
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Sunday, August 17, 2008
Loockerman Exchange set to reopen
I saw in the paper today that the Loockerman Exchange in downtown Dover will be reopening soon under new management. I had written about its close a few months ago. I already threw out the paper, but I remember specifically that they said one of the things they will be changing is the speed of service for lunch and that lunch entrees will run between $5 and $10, which will keep them in line with the other lunch venues in that area. The old website is here; I'm not sure if it is still actively updated or not or will change when the new site opens.
Particularly, the article implies that they will be striving for lunch to take less than an hour. That only jumped out at me because I did eat there for lunch a couple of times and the lunch took well over an hour, and probably closer to two hours (which is really slow). I have written about the pace of lunches downstate on other occasions, and it still amazes me that (as compared to Wilmington), that it is a struggle for a group or even two people to get in and out of some of these places for lunch under an hour.
But maybe this attempt to pick up the lunch pace will rub off on some of the other fine eating establishments in Dover. For now, the record for the best service in terms of food, speed, and price remains the Amish Market (Spenses, which is near the hospital).
(Still not sure where they expect people to park if they really want to get non-Doverites to return to downtown Dover at night, but maybe they have worked out some deal with the post office and a shuttle service of sorts). Maybe I'll check it out once they reopen.
Particularly, the article implies that they will be striving for lunch to take less than an hour. That only jumped out at me because I did eat there for lunch a couple of times and the lunch took well over an hour, and probably closer to two hours (which is really slow). I have written about the pace of lunches downstate on other occasions, and it still amazes me that (as compared to Wilmington), that it is a struggle for a group or even two people to get in and out of some of these places for lunch under an hour.
But maybe this attempt to pick up the lunch pace will rub off on some of the other fine eating establishments in Dover. For now, the record for the best service in terms of food, speed, and price remains the Amish Market (Spenses, which is near the hospital).
(Still not sure where they expect people to park if they really want to get non-Doverites to return to downtown Dover at night, but maybe they have worked out some deal with the post office and a shuttle service of sorts). Maybe I'll check it out once they reopen.
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Wednesday, August 13, 2008
MSNBC email takes over the CNN email spam
In a rather quick turnaround of spammers, the CNN spam I wrote about last week has evolved into a similar scam from MSNBC. This one purports to be from "MSNBC Breaking News" and has the subject line "msnbc.com - BREAKING NEWS:" and then some headline. I didn't bother clicking on it, but it should jump out to anyone who thinks two seconds about it as being a spam/scam.
Several other sites have also written about this less than clever scam. It will lead you to some malware website, so again, use your head. The only reason these clowns still operate is that people still fall for it. Here's a thought: If it sounds too good to be true, it is. Would it really make sense that you won some lottery in a foreign country or have some dead millionaire cousin who you never heard of and left you and nobody else (other than thousands of other fools) money? Of course not.
Take a look at Security Watch (providing great detail on the scam), Can Talk Tech, MX Logic IT Security Blog for more information about it. A couple of other bloggers have also reported on it: CyberCrime and Doing Time and Panda Security (with a screenshot of the email). Again, just use your head and delete the email and these dummies will get the hint eventually. And update your virus software.
Several other sites have also written about this less than clever scam. It will lead you to some malware website, so again, use your head. The only reason these clowns still operate is that people still fall for it. Here's a thought: If it sounds too good to be true, it is. Would it really make sense that you won some lottery in a foreign country or have some dead millionaire cousin who you never heard of and left you and nobody else (other than thousands of other fools) money? Of course not.
Take a look at Security Watch (providing great detail on the scam), Can Talk Tech, MX Logic IT Security Blog for more information about it. A couple of other bloggers have also reported on it: CyberCrime and Doing Time and Panda Security (with a screenshot of the email). Again, just use your head and delete the email and these dummies will get the hint eventually. And update your virus software.
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Friday, August 8, 2008
CNN Custom Alerts spam/spoof email - it is a virus
Most junk mail and spam mail is pretty easy to spot. I noticed today that I had gotten several emails from "CNN Alerts" with the subject line "CNN Alerts: My Custom Alert." Since I had not signed up for this sort of thing, I thought it was strange, but opened it to see what it was nonetheless (no file was attached, obviously).
It seems to send you to a link and sends you to CNN sites that are otherwise accurate. But if you mouse over the "Full Story" link, you'll see it attempts to take you to some international website. Another blogger reports that the link in fact sends you to a malware site, so be smart, use your head and don't click on it.
Other sites also have reported on this particular spam and confirm that it is another attempt at scamming the innocent and unsuspecting email public: Donna's Security Flash, Spyware Techie, CNET Spyware; Can Talk Tech (which has the screenshot).
Like the IRS email scam attempted a few months ago, use your noggin and keep this particular in your spam folder.
It seems to send you to a link and sends you to CNN sites that are otherwise accurate. But if you mouse over the "Full Story" link, you'll see it attempts to take you to some international website. Another blogger reports that the link in fact sends you to a malware site, so be smart, use your head and don't click on it.
Other sites also have reported on this particular spam and confirm that it is another attempt at scamming the innocent and unsuspecting email public: Donna's Security Flash, Spyware Techie, CNET Spyware; Can Talk Tech (which has the screenshot).
Like the IRS email scam attempted a few months ago, use your noggin and keep this particular in your spam folder.
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